While global population has tripled since the U.N.'s creation in 1945, global fertility rates over the past 100 years have steadily declined, from a high of 6 children per family at the dawn of the 20th century, to about 5 in 1950, to 2.5 today. . . . The United Nations has produced a range of scenarios showing population growing to nearly 10 billion over the next century -- or even as high as nearly 27 billion, if the current rate of population growth continues through the next century. . . . More likely, according to U.N. statisticians, is that population will gradually rise to 8 billion in 2025, 9 billion in 2043, hit 10.1 billion by century's end, and then stabilize.
. . . Demographers have missed some of the most important demographic shifts of the past century. . . . For example, the precipitous drop in Iran's fertility rate, from 6.9 in 1960 to 1.6 today, caught the world by surprise, particularly since most of the decline took place after the Islamic Revolution.
The United States has largely avoided the fate of many other developing countries on the back of its large population of immigrants. Despite its demographic benefits, immigration has come under increasing political attack in the United States, which announced it had deported more than 400,000 foreigners during the past year, more than at any time in U.S. history. But is this really something Washington should be trumpeting? . . . Detroit, which has seen population drop by 25 percent over the past decade, has been brought to its knees. New York City, which has seen an increase of 400,000 people over the same period, has prospered. It's growth driven largely by immigration. Foreign Policy
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